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seamless steel pipe production and trade data - European

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seamless steel pipe production and trade data - European

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Source: Customs Statistics, Metol Expert, Various sources, Metol Bulletin Research* Some European figures are MBR estimates

Seamless pipe demand in the CIS region is slow, but expected to pick up over the next few months In December seamless pipe demand for standard grades fell significantly, and as a result, purchasing activity from stockists also declined. We expect stagnant growth in the CIS region as we move into the first quarter of the year with producers slowly scaling up capacity to meet an anticipated pick up in purchases following seasonal demand trends. In mid-February, buying activity should come back online, during this period we expect standard seamless prices to pick up in Russia following the anticipated surge in demand. The OCTG sector of seamless tube and pipe in Russia continued to be supported by strong oil prices. The robust demand for OCTG seamless pipe is likely to be maintained over the next few months with expected high output from Russian oil and gas companies.

European seamless STEEL production and trade data

	2009	2010	Apr 11	May 11	Jun 11	Jul 11	Aug 11	Sep 11	Oct 11	year-to-date	y-o-y % chg

Austria production	345	377	35	37	34	26	28	36	-	296	5%
Net import	-126	-263	-31	-33	-31	-33	-16	-28	-	-246	55%
Apparent cons	219	114	4	4	3	-7	12	8	-	14	-84%
Czech production	254	331	33	37	33	34	29	35	-	296	22%
Net import	-172	-221	-20	-24	-22	-19	-20	-23	-23	-205	10%
Apparent cons	82	110	13	13	11	15	9	12	-	92	18%
France production	549	576	59	63	57	62	21	61	-	483	11%
Net import	-196	-168	-21	-23	-23	-44	-9	-30	-32	-261	112%
Apparent cons	353	408	38	40	34	18	12	31	-	254	-23%
Germany production	1,067	1,187	108	122	117	88	104	116	-	971	8%
Net import	-613	-722	-47	-56	-41	-36	-57	-49	-49	-493	-17%
Apparent cons	454	465	61	66	76	51	47	67	-	527	37%
Greece
Net import	24	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	-	10	39%
Italy production	564	760	71	73	76	71	22	-	-	507	3%
Net import	-241	-178	-15	-21	-10	-13	-22	10	-	-143	4%
Apparent cons	323	582	55	51	67	58	-	-	-	354	-3%
No
Net import	66	42	4	4	11	6	7	15	7	81	141%
Poland production	103	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net import	34	60	6	8	8	4	6	5	-	57	32%
Apparent cons	137	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Romania production	318	430	43	48	48	-	-	-	-	259	23%
Net import	-184	-337	-39	-35	-37	-34	-23	-29	-	-284	28%
Apparent cons	134	93	4	13	11	-	-	-	-	61	28%
Russia production	2,139	2,649	246	256	242	249	245	228	237	2,436	12%
Net import	-87	6	15	16	-12	7	2	8	10	59	-334%
Apparent cons	2,052	2,655	261	272	229	256	247	236	247	2,495	16%
Spain production	199	292	24	29	27	19	-	-	-	180	4%
Net import	-28	-69	-7	-16	-21	-14	-1	-3	-	-97	206%
Apparent cons	171	223	18	13	6	6	-	-	-	87	-42%
Sweden production	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net import	-20	-18	-2	-2	-3	-1	1	-2	-	-14	51%
Apparent cons	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Turkey
Net import	113	178	14	16	12	23	15	19	20	178	22%
Ukraine production	510	782	85	77	78	77	71	64	79	757	18%
Net import	-396	-602	-60	-57	-58	-58	-51	-54	-54	-563	13%
Apparent cons	114	180	25	20	20	19	20	10	25	194	34%
UK production	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net import	83	89	15	16	14	14	14	10	9	107	51%
Apparent cons	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Slovakia production	44	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Plants in the CIS region are becoming more efficient at producing billet and as a result, seamless tubing prices are not as heavily influenced by fluctuations seen in billet and semi-finished steel prices in the international market. We expect this to be a growing trend over the next few years because it allows companies to hedge against market fluctuations of semis prices, while allowing companies to increase profits using their own material. In Ukraine, production cost of HR seamless pipe should remain stable for the next three months with export prices for semi-finished products remaining unchanged.

European markets remain stable; however, project slowdowns and cancelations have been noted Fears of a slowdown in the economic growth across Europe were heightened this month, as rumours of a credit rating downgrade from Standard & Poor’s rating agency for up to 11 countries in the euro area sent markets down. France confirmed that their country lost its AAA rating this month. The downgrade is of concern as its impact may negatively affect economic growth rates and consumer confidence, directly reducing the consumption of mechanical tube and pipe. According to the IMF, the euro area industrial production index ( seasonally adjusted) declined from September’s rate of 2.6% to 1.6% in October. We expect this contraction, along with a decline in the construction production index, to put a strain on tube and pipe producers in the industrial and construction arenas.

Prices in Europe have remained relatively stable this month, despite the lingering sovereign-debt crisisand weakening euro. The European export market remains supported by the depreciation of the euro, so far this month it has fallen to a low of1.2678 $/€. Slowdowns and cancelations of project decisions have been noted following the start of the new quarter, mostly attributed to economic sentiment. We expect prices to remain fairly firm with little variance this month. Market sentiment and seamless demand will be vulnerable to further credit rating downgrades, along with equity market and commodity price volatility.

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