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seamless steel pipe production and trade data - European

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Source: Customs Statistics, Metol Expert, Various sources, Metol Bulletin Research* Some European figures are MBR estimates

Seamless pipe demand in the CIS region is slow, but expected to pick up over the next few months In December seamless pipe demand for standard grades fell significantly, and as a result, purchasing activity from stockists also declined. We expect stagnant growth in the CIS region as we move into the first quarter of the year with producers slowly scaling up capacity to meet an anticipated pick up in purchases following seasonal demand trends. In mid-February, buying activity should come back online, during this period we expect standard seamless prices to pick up in Russia following the anticipated surge in demand. The OCTG sector of seamless tube and pipe in Russia continued to be supported by strong oil prices. The robust demand for OCTG seamless pipe is likely to be maintained over the next few months with expected high output from Russian oil and gas companies.

European seamless STEEL  production and trade data 

 

2009

2010

Apr 11

May 11

Jun 11

Jul 11

Aug 11

Sep 11

Oct 11

year-to-date

y-o-y % chg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Austria production

345

377

35

37

34

26

28

36

-

296

5%

Net import

-126

-263

-31

-33

-31

-33

-16

-28

-

-246

55%

Apparent cons

219

114

4

4

3

-7

12

8

-

14

-84%

Czech production

254

331

33

37

33

34

29

35

-

296

22%

Net import

-172

-221

-20

-24

-22

-19

-20

-23

-23

-205

10%

Apparent cons

82

110

13

13

11

15

9

12

-

92

18%

France production

549

576

59

63

57

62

21

61

-

483

11%

Net import

-196

-168

-21

-23

-23

-44

-9

-30

-32

-261

112%

Apparent cons

353

408

38

40

34

18

12

31

-

254

-23%

Germany production

1,067

1,187

108

122

117

88

104

116

-

971

8%

Net import

-613

-722

-47

-56

-41

-36

-57

-49

-49

-493

-17%

Apparent cons

454

465

61

66

76

51

47

67

-

527

37%

Greece

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net import

24

10

1

1

1

1

1

1

-

10

39%

Italy production

564

760

71

73

76

71

22

-

-

507

3%

Net import

-241

-178

-15

-21

-10

-13

-22

10

-

-143

4%

Apparent cons

323

582

55

51

67

58

-

-

-

354

-3%

No

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net import

66

42

4

4

11

6

7

15

7

81

141%

Poland production

103

27

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Net import

34

60

6

8

8

4

6

5

-

57

32%

Apparent cons

137

38

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Romania production

318

430

43

48

48

-

-

-

-

259

23%

Net import

-184

-337

-39

-35

-37

-34

-23

-29

-

-284

28%

Apparent cons

134

93

4

13

11

-

-

-

-

61

28%

Russia production

2,139

2,649

246

256

242

249

245

228

237

2,436

12%

Net import

-87

6

15

16

-12

7

2

8

10

59

-334%

Apparent cons

2,052

2,655

261

272

229

256

247

236

247

2,495

16%

Spain production

199

292

24

29

27

19

-

-

-

180

4%

Net import

-28

-69

-7

-16

-21

-14

-1

-3

-

-97

206%

Apparent cons

171

223

18

13

6

6

-

-

-

87

-42%

Sweden production

40

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Net import

-20

-18

-2

-2

-3

-1

1

-2

-

-14

51%

Apparent cons

28

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Turkey

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net import

113

178

14

16

12

23

15

19

20

178

22%

Ukraine production

510

782

85

77

78

77

71

64

79

757

18%

Net import

-396

-602

-60

-57

-58

-58

-51

-54

-54

-563

13%

Apparent cons

114

180

25

20

20

19

20

10

25

194

34%

UK production

6

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Net import

83

89

15

16

14

14

14

10

9

107

51%

Apparent cons

50

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Slovakia production

44

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Plants in the CIS region are becoming more efficient at producing billet and as a result, seamless tubing prices are not as heavily influenced by fluctuations seen in billet and semi-finished steel prices in the international market. We expect this to be a growing trend over the next few years because it allows companies to hedge against market fluctuations of semis prices, while allowing companies to increase profits using their own material. In Ukraine, production cost of HR seamless pipe should remain stable for the next three months with export prices for semi-finished products remaining unchanged.

European markets remain stable; however, project slowdowns and cancelations have been noted Fears of a slowdown in the economic growth across Europe were heightened this month, as rumours of a credit rating downgrade from Standard & Poor’s rating agency for up to 11 countries in the euro area sent markets down. France confirmed that their country lost its AAA rating this month. The downgrade is of concern as its impact may negatively affect economic growth rates and consumer confidence, directly reducing the consumption of mechanical tube and pipe. According to the IMF, the euro area industrial production index ( seasonally adjusted) declined from September’s rate of 2.6% to 1.6% in October. We expect this contraction, along with a decline in the construction production index, to put a strain on tube and pipe producers in the industrial and construction arenas.

Prices in Europe have remained relatively stable this month, despite the lingering sovereign-debt crisisand weakening euro. The European export market remains supported by the depreciation of the euro, so far this month it has fallen to a low of1.2678 $/€. Slowdowns and cancelations of project decisions have been noted following the start of the new quarter, mostly attributed to economic sentiment. We expect prices to remain fairly firm with little variance this month. Market sentiment and seamless demand will be vulnerable to further credit rating downgrades, along with equity market and commodity price volatility.

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